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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Predictions and Latest Betting Odds
- Last UFC pay-per-view of 2025 features two title fights: Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan (Bantamweight) and Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van (Flyweight)
- Get the latest betting odds from Stake and HugeStakes’ UFC 323 fight predictions
- How to watch UFC 323 if you’re outside the United States
- UFC 323 Predictions: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 & Pantoja vs. Van
- UFC 323 Main Event Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Petr Yan
- UFC 323 Co-Main Event Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Joshua Van
- UFC 323 Sleeper Picks & Other Main Gems
- Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
- Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
- UFC 323: Frequently Asked Questions
Finishing the year with a banger of a card is what the UFC does, and we have all the latest betting odds along with our own UFC 323 predictions for the main and co-main events, along with a look at Cejudo vs Talbott.
UFC 323 Predictions: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 & Pantoja vs. Van
UFC 323 is set to close out the 2025 pay-per-view calendar with a massive championship double-header at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday, December 6.
The card features a high-stakes bantamweight title rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan, alongside the flyweight championship clash between Alexandre Pantoja and rising star Joshua Van.
Below are our UFC 323 predictions for fight fans who are looking for the best betting angles on this stacked card.
Quick Fight Card Prediction Overview
| Fight | Weight Class | Predicted Winner | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Petr Yan 2 | Bantamweight | Merab Dvalishvili | Decision |
| Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Joshua Van | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Submission |
UFC 323 Main Event Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Petr Yan
Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili looks to cap off a historic 2025 by defending his bantamweight title for the fourth time in a single calendar year.
He faces a familiar foe, Petr Yan, whom he dominated in a shutout decision back in 2023. However, since that loss, Yan has rebuilt his momentum with sharp boxing and improved takedown defense, aiming to reclaim the belt he once held.
- Dvalishvili’s Path to Victory: The champion’s game plan relies on his ultra-impressive cardio. In their first meeting, Dvalishvili attempted a record-breaking 49 takedowns. While he didn't secure them all, the constant threat froze Yan’s offense. Merab will likely repeat this strategy, looking to drown Yan in pace and volume.
- Yan’s Path to Victory: Yan must keep the fight in the center of the Octagon. His boxing is technically superior, and he needs to land damaging counters when Merab shoots. The key for Yan is early damage; he cannot afford to give away the first two rounds while "downloading data" as he has in the past.
Betting Angles & Odds
| Dvalishvili | Yan |
|---|---|
| 1.24 | 4.20 |
Best Value
The odds on Dvalishvili in the Winner market are rather tight. A better betting angle would be to back Dvalishvili by Decision. Yan has proven throughout his career to be incredibly durable and difficult to finish, even when being outwrestled, so its likely this fight will go the full five rounds.
HugeStakes Prediction
Yan will look sharper than in the first fight, but Dvalishvili’s relentless pressure is a stylistic nightmare for him. Expect Merab to mix striking with takedowns to disrupt Yan’s rhythm.
Winner: Merab Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision.
UFC 323 Co-Main Event Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Joshua Van
Flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja puts his belt on the line against the surging contender Joshua Van. Pantoja has looked nearly unbeatable since capturing the title, blending aggressive striking with elite grappling. Joshua Van, known for his high-volume boxing and durability, represents the new wave of talent at 125 lbs.
- Pantoja’s Edge: Experience and grappling. Pantoja thrives in chaos but has the distinct advantage if the fight hits the mat. He is a dangerous back-taker and can finish the fight from positions where other fighters are just trying to survive.
- Van’s Edge: Youth and boxing volume. Van tends to start slow but builds momentum as the fight goes on. If he can stuff Pantoja's early takedowns and force a kickboxing match, his crisp combinations could overwhelm the champion in the later rounds.
Betting Angles & Odds
| Pantoja | Van |
|---|---|
| 1.44 | 2.90 |
Best Value
Pantoja has shown a tendency to fade slightly in championship rounds, while Van gets stronger. However, the skill gap on the ground is significant. Pantoja by Submission (2.29 on Stake) is a high-value prop bet.
HugeStakes Prediction
Joshua Van is a live dog, but Pantoja’s ability to change levels and threaten submissions will be the difference. Pantoja likely secures a takedown in the second or third round to find the neck.
Winner: Alexandre Pantoja via Submission (RNC) in Round 3.
UFC 323 Sleeper Picks & Other Main Gems
While the championship double-header grabs the headlines, the UFC 323 main card is stacked with narratives of ‘old guard vs. new blood’ that could steal the show.
Here is a unique breakdown of the key undercard matchups to watch, with a focus on stylistic clashes and betting angles you might not find elsewhere.
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
This fight is the definition of a crossroads bout. Henry "Triple C" Cejudo, an Olympic Gold Medalist and former two-division UFC champion, has openly stated this will likely be his final walk to the Octagon.
He faces Payton Talbott, a 26-year-old phenom who has torn through the bantamweight division with a unique blend of swagger and violence.
- The Wrestling X-Factor: Cejudo’s path to victory has always been his world-class wrestling, but in his recent comeback, we’ve seen him rely heavily on his karate-style stance and boxing. Against Talbott, he must return to his roots. Talbott’s takedown defense has shown cracks (giving up 8 takedowns to Raoni Barcelos), and Cejudo is the best wrestler he has ever faced.
- Talbott’s "Chaos" Theory: Talbott thrives in the pocket. He fights with his hands low, relying on head movement and relentless volume (landing over 8 significant strikes per minute in some bouts). He doesn't just want to win; he wants to embarrass you. His height (5'10" vs. Cejudo's 5'4") could be a massive problem for Cejudo on the feet.
The "Sleeper" Prediction
Most are picking Talbott to violently retire Cejudo. However, the unique angle here is Cejudo’s fight IQ. Talbott is hittable and can be controlled. If Cejudo fights a disciplined, boring fight, clinching, dirty boxing, and excellent wrestling, he can stifle the younger fighter.
Talbott has never felt this level of pressure or championship experience. Expect Cejudo to 'big brother' him for 15 minutes in a gritty, veteran performance.
Our Pick: Henry Cejudo by Split Decision
Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
Former champion Brandon Moreno is fighting for his spot in the title picture against the Japanese prodigy, Tatsuro Taira. This is a classic 'Master vs. Student' dynamic, with Taira looking to prove he is the future of the 125 lb division.
Taira is a positional grappling genius. He doesn't just take you down; he suffocates you, advancing position with robotic precision. Moreno, however, is one of the best scramblers in MMA history.
He thrives in the chaos of transitions. The key battle will be whether Taira can hold Moreno down or if Moreno can create scrambles that lead to his own submissions or striking opportunities.
On the feet, this isn't close. Moreno’s boxing is crisp, fast, and powerful. Taira is serviceable but still developing his striking defense. If Moreno can keep this standing, Taira is in deep trouble.
The "Sleeper" Prediction
The betting lines are tight, often favoring Taira slightly due to momentum. But the "sleeper" angle is Moreno by KO/TKO. Taira has been hit in previous fights, and Moreno possesses the power to punish a grappler who gets desperate for a takedown.
Taira’s undefeated record masks a lack of experience against elite-level strikers who can grapple. Moreno will stuff the early shots and catch Taira coming in.
Our Pick: Brandon Moreno by KO/TKO (Round 2)
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov
Legendary Polish Power meets the 'Uzbek Hulk.' At 42, Jan Blachowicz is fighting to stay relevant, while Guskov is looking for the biggest scalp of his career.
Everyone talks about Blachowicz’s 'Polish Power,' but his real strength in his later years has been his defensive grappling and body kicks. Guskov is a head-hunter who loads up on every shot.
Blachowicz has seen it all. He will likely use his checked left kick to brutalize Guskov’s liver and body, slowing him down, and then use his underrated wrestling to control the later rounds. Do not sleep on 'Old Man Jan' teaching the young powerhouse a lesson in patience.
Our Pick: Jan Blachowicz by Decision
UFC 323: Frequently Asked Questions
When does UFC 323 start?
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Main Card Time: 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT
- Prelims Time: 8:00 PM ET (ESPN/ESPN+)
How can I watch the UFC 323 main event from outside the US?
Stake.com will stream UFC 323 directly on its platform for its international customers. T&Cs apply.
Who is the favorite in the main event?
Merab Dvalishvili is currently a significant favorite to defeat Petr Yan according to major sportsbooks like Stake.com.
Are there other notable fights on the UFC 323 main card?
Yes, the undercard features former champions and top contenders, including Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira and Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott.
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