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GTA 6 Betting on Stake: Every Special Market Explained

By Leon Travers

28 minutes ago

Leon Travers28 minutes ago

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Stake has five GTA VI special markets live now.
xQc is the 1.50 favourite in the KICK streamer race.
Other markets cover the ending, Metacritic score and cameos.
New players get 200% up to $3,000 with code HUGE.

GTA 6 Betting on Stake
GTA VI odds on Stake
Where to Find the GTA VI Markets
Stake Welcome Bonus
How to Bet on GTA 6 at Stake
GTA 6 Betting FAQs

Thirteen years after GTA V, Rockstar is finally taking us back to Vice City. If you've spent years refreshing Rockstar's socials for a trailer, the wait is nearly over. Grand Theft Auto VI lands on 19 November 2026, and Stake has turned the launch into something you can bet on.

Five GTA VI specials are live right now. You can back a streamer to finish the story first, call the ending, or take a view on the review scores. Just so we're clear, you're betting on the game through Stake's sportsbook, not gambling inside it.

Below you'll find every market, the current odds, and how each one settles. New to Stake? Sign up with promo code HUGE before you place your first bet.

GTA 6 Betting on Stake

Here's the short version before we dig into the markets.

Details	Key Info
Game launch	19 November 2026 (PS5 and Xbox Series X/S)
Betting markets	5 GTA VI specials
Where to find them	Stake sportsbook, under GTA VI Specials
Stake promo code	HUGE
Welcome bonus	200% deposit match up to $3,000 for new players

GTA VI odds on Stake

These were the prices on Stake when we checked on 14 November 2026. Odds move, so confirm them on your bet slip.

KICK Streamer Race To The Credits

Selection	Odds	Implied Chance
xQc	1.50	66.7%
dcampion	3.10	32.3%
Omie	12.00	8.3%
Ramee	16.00	6.3%
LordKebun	18.00	5.6%
Kaysan	18.00	5.6%

Will Jason or Lucia die at the end?

Selection	Odds	Implied Chance
Yes	1.53	65.4%
No	2.20	45.5%

Will there be an alternative ending?

Selection	Odds	Implied Chance
Yes	1.15	87.0%
No	4.20	23.8%

Metacritic beats GTA V and RDR2 (both 97)?

Selection	Odds	Implied Chance
Yes	2.40	41.7%
No	1.45	69.0%

A GTA V protagonist appears in story mode?

Selection	Odds	Implied Chance
Yes	3.00	33.3%
No	1.30	76.9%

Implied chance is 1 divided by the odds. The numbers in each market add up to more than 100% because Stake's margin is built into the prices.

KICK Streamer Race To The Credits

This is the headline act, and the only market you can watch play out live. Six streamers are listed. The first to reach the story mode credits live on their KICK channel wins.

xQc is the clear favourite. He co-owns NoPixel, one of the biggest GTA roleplay servers, and is known for marathon streams. Punters agree, because he opened at 1.60 and has already shortened to 1.50.

dcampion is the main challenger at 3.10. Everyone else is priced at 12.00 or longer, though all six have roots in GTA roleplay.

Start times could matter as much as speed. GTA VI unlocks at midnight local time in each region, so Europe gets it hours before North America. dcampion's KICK profile describes him as Irish. If he plays from Ireland, he could start five hours before the US East Coast.

Stake's rules don't adjust for that. The first streamer to reach the credits wins, no matter what time they started.

He's no lock, though. Nobody knows how long the story runs, and Vice City is built for distractions. A streamer who explores, sleeps or entertains chat could lose hours to a rival who sprints.

Where I'd lean: xQc deserves to be favourite, but 1.50 leaves little room for a staggered start. dcampion at 3.10 is the price that tempts me.

Will Jason or Lucia die at the end of GTA VI?

Rockstar likes a tragic finale. John Marston and Arthur Morgan both learned that the hard way in the Red Dead games. Jason and Lucia are a criminal couple on the run, which rarely ends with a quiet retirement.

Stake leans the same way, with Yes at 1.53 and No at 2.20. Fans are less sure. Earlier this month, a similar Polymarket question sat close to a coin flip.

The settlement rule helps Yes. It pays if either of them dies in the final mission or ending cutscenes of any available ending. By that rule, GTA V would have settled Yes, because two of its three endings kill a protagonist. If Jason or Lucia dies earlier in the story, the market is void.

Then again, Rockstar may want both leads alive for whatever comes after the story. At 2.20, that argument pays better than evens.

Where I'd lean: Yes. If the game has several endings, it only takes one of them to turn tragic.

Will there be an alternative ending to GTA VI?

Yes is the shortest price on the whole page at 1.15. GTA V gave you three ways out, including the fan-favourite Deathwish. GTA IV made you pick between Deal and Revenge.

With two protagonists, a branching finale feels like the natural move. The 4.20 on No is for anyone who thinks Rockstar will tell one fixed story this time.

For Yes to win, a player choice or in-game behaviour must decide which ending you get. Small differences in dialogue or epilogue detail don't count.

Where I'd lean: Yes, but 1.15 is thin. This is one to watch, not one to chase.

Will GTA VI beat GTA V and RDR2 on Metacritic?

GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2 both sit on 97. To land Yes at 2.40, GTA VI has to score higher than both. Matching them isn't enough.

Stake reads the critic Metascore seven days after release, at 10:00 AM ET on 26 November. The User Score plays no part. That's a brutal target. Only a handful of games have ever reached 98, and GTA IV is one of them. Review scores also tend to slip slightly as more critics file.

No is the favourite at 1.45 for that reason. Still, if any game can do it, it's the one we've all waited 13 years for.

Where I'd lean: No. I expect a brilliant game that lands on 96 or 97.

Will a GTA V protagonist appear in GTA VI story mode?

Michael, Franklin and Trevor are the three names in play. Stake prices a cameo at 3.00, with No at 1.30.

The bar is high. One of the three must be seen or heard in story mode. Billboards, posters, radio references and passing mentions don't count. Neither do GTA Online or DLC.

Rockstar has brought characters across before. Johnny Klebitz and Packie McReary from the GTA IV era both turned up in GTA V, though Johnny didn't last long. Niko Bellic never appeared at all. He got a passing mention and nothing more.

Leonida is also a long way from Los Santos, and nothing shown so far hints at a return. This is the market for lore obsessives with a theory.

Where I'd lean: No. A radio mention or a billboard feels likely, but neither counts under Stake's rules.

Where to Find the GTA VI Markets

The specials sit inside Stake's sportsbook, not the casino. Open Sports, search for GTA VI, then tap GTA VI Specials. All five markets appear on one page, so you can compare them without clicking around.

They work like any other outright bet. Pick a selection, add it to your bet slip, enter a stake and confirm.

Stake Welcome Bonus

If you don't have an account yet, the GTA VI launch is a good excuse to open one. Enter the Stake.com promo code HUGE when you register to unlock the welcome bonus for new players.

The offer is a 200% deposit match worth up to $3,000. Deposit $100, for example, and you get $200 in bonus funds on top.

The code only works for new accounts, and you need to verify your identity before the bonus is credited. Wagering requirements apply, so read the terms before you deposit.

Stake is also giving away 100 copies of GTA 6 to players who bet on these markets.

How to Bet on GTA 6 at Stake

Placing a bet on GTA 6 only takes a couple of minutes.

Create a Stake account and enter the code HUGE when you sign up.
Verify your account and make your first deposit to claim the welcome bonus.
Open Sports and search for GTA VI Specials.
Tap your selection, enter your stake and confirm the bet.

GTA 6 Betting FAQs

When do the GTA VI markets settle?
The streamer race settles when the first listed streamer reaches the credits live on KICK. The Metacritic market settles at 10:00 AM ET on 26 November. The story markets settle once the endings are confirmed.
Is there a Stake promo code for GTA 6 betting?
Use code HUGE when you register. It unlocks a 200% deposit match up to $3,000 for new players.
Are the GTA VI markets available everywhere?
No. Stake is not available in every country, and specials can vary by region. Check the sportsbook from your own account.

Stake is for adults aged 18 and over, so set a budget and use Stake's responsible gambling tools if you need them.

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