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UFC 324 Predictions & Best Bets: Gaethje vs Pimblett

By Leon Travers

29 Dec 2025

Leon Travers29 Dec 2025

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UFC 324 marks a major shift away from Pay-Per-View, included with Paramount+.
Gaethje's knockout power favored over Pimblett due to leg kicks and defensive gaps.
Nunes returns, but Harrison's clinch game and physicality may lead to victory.

UFC 324 Predictions: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett
UFC 324 Predictions: Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes
Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis
UFC 324 – Best Bets Summary
UFC 324 Betting Odds on Stake.com
Stake’s UFC 324 Promotions

The first UFC numbered card of 2026 promises to be a huge event with Gaethje facing Paddy ‘the Baddy’ Pimblett and Amanda Nunes returning to challenge Kayla Harrison. Follow our UFC 324 predictions as we break down these fights and look for the best bets.

History will be made on January 24. The ESPN era is officially over, and the Paramount+ era begins. For the first time in modern UFC history, a numbered card featuring two title fights is not on Pay-Per-View, but included with a standard streaming subscription.

The event is built around a fan-friendly interim lightweight title fight, the return of a legendary former champion, and a main card stacked with established names and high-stakes matchups.

Below, we break down the key fights on the card through a stylistic lens and offer clear betting angles rather than simply backing the Winner market.

UFC 324 Predictions: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

With current lightweight champ Ilia Topuria taking a break from fighting while he resolves some personal issues, the UFC has chosen to set up an interim championship bout between two of its most marketable and dangerous contenders.

Justin Gaethje remains one of the division’s ultimate stress tests. He brings elite power, elite durability, and a refined counter-striking game to the octagon.

Paddy Pimblett, meanwhile, arrives on the biggest stage of his career after proving in his win against Michael Chandler that he can handle the pressure.

Stylistic Breakdown

Pimblett fights from a wide, upright stance that leaves his lead leg exposed. Gaethje has built entire game plans around dismantling opponents with calf and thigh kicks. If those kicks go unchecked early, Pimblett’s explosiveness and lateral movement are likely to erode quickly.

Paddy ‘the Baddy’ does not want extended kickboxing exchanges. His clearest path to victory is by creating chaos: forcing scrambles, creating awkward clinch entries, and capitalizing on transitions where submissions become available. The longer this fight stays at range, the worse it looks for him.

The ‘Highlight’ Justin Gaethje has evolved into a more patient striker, relying on timing rather than reckless exchanges. Pimblett has shown resilience, but his defensive habits, particularly entering the pocket with his chin high, are risky against an opponent who punishes mistakes instantly.

HugeStakes’ Prediction

Pimblett is dangerous and opportunistic, but this matchup heavily favors Gaethje’s strengths. Sustained leg damage is likely to limit Pimblett’s offense by the middle rounds, forcing predictable entries. Gaethje’s takedown defense and counter-striking should take over late.

Pick: Justin Gaethje
Method: KO/TKO (Round 3)
Betting Angles: Gaethje by KO or TKO / Fight Under 3.5 Rounds

UFC 324 Predictions: Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes

The ‘Lioness’ returns. After retiring in 2023, Amanda Nunes is back to reclaim the UFC women’s bantamweight title against her former teammate, Kayla Harrison.

Harrison has looked unstoppable since capturing the belt in June 2025, using her Olympic Judo to maul the division. This is ‘Teacher vs. Student’ for the highest stakes possible.

Stylistic Breakdown

Nunes remains one of the most complete fighters the sport has seen, but coming out of retirement after nearly three years to face an opponent in peak physical condition is a significant challenge. Harrison enters with rhythm, confidence, and sustained competitive activity.

Amanda Nunes has strong takedown defense, but Harrison’s clinch game is built on relentless pressure and elite balance. If Harrison can pin Nunes to the fence consistently, takedowns and prolonged top control become likely.

Extended grappling exchanges historically favor Harrison. If the fight stretches beyond the early rounds, her pace and positional control could steadily tilt the scorecards or open the door for a late stoppage.

HugeStakes’ Prediction

Nunes is most dangerous early, but Harrison’s physicality and clinch pressure should assert themselves over time. If Harrison survives the opening exchanges, the fight trends strongly in her favor.

Pick: Kayla Harrison
Method: Unanimous Decision or Late TKO (Ground-and-Pound)
Betting Angle: Harrison Winner market

Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong

After back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili, ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley steps back into the octagon at UFC 324 against the Chinese star Song Yadong.

Sean O'Malley thrives at range, using length, timing, and precision to control fights. Song Yadong brings durability, power, and pressure, but has historically struggled against taller opponents who manage distance effectively.

If O’Malley stays disciplined and avoids extended exchanges in the pocket, this matchup favors his style over three rounds.

Prediction: Sean O’Malley by Decision
Betting Angle: Over 2.5 Rounds

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis

Heavyweight fights are volatile by nature, but stylistically this is a classic youth-versus-experience matchup. Derrick Lewis still carries fight-ending power, while Waldo Cortes-Acosta relies on volume, movement, and positional discipline.

Over three rounds, the cleaner, higher-output approach favors Cortes-Acosta, provided he avoids the one-shot equalizer.

Prediction: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision

UFC 324 – Best Bets Summary

Fight	Selection	Reasoning	Risk
Gaethje vs Pimblett	Gaethje KO/TKO	Leg-kick advantage and defensive gaps	Medium
Harrison vs Nunes	Harrison (Dec)	Physical prime vs long layoff	Low
O’Malley vs Yadong	Over 2.5 Rounds	Range management, durability	Medium
Cortes-Acosta vs Lewis	Cortes-Acosta (Dec)	Volume vs aging power puncher	Medium

UFC 324 Betting Odds on Stake.com

We’re still a few weeks away from the big event, but value bettors will know that this can be the best time to put their wagers on.

This is particularly true for our Gaethje prediction because he is a wide underdog at the moment. However, as the event draws closer, I anticipate plenty of money coming in for the ‘Highlight’ because of his huge fanbase.

Fighter	Odds	Fighter	Odds
Justin Gaethje	2.70	Paddy Pimblett	1.47
Kayla Harrison	1.49	Amanda Nunes	2.65
Sean O’Malley	1.42	Song Yadong	2.90
Waldo Cortes-Acosta	1.34	Derrick Lewis	3.30
Arnold Allen	2.85	Jean Silva	1.44

Note: Odds updated on 31st December 2025 from the Stake.com Sportsbook.

Stake’s UFC 324 Promotions

We’re still waiting for confirmation on Stake’s event-specific UFC 324 promotions. In the meantime, it’s still worth considering its ongoing offers, including:

New Player Welcome Bonus: For readers who do not have a betting account, you can sign up with our Stake.com code HUGE and get 200% up to $3,000 on your first deposit. This bonus is a great way to bet on UFC 324 without risking your own cash.

UFC Split Decision Insurance: Back any fighter in the Winner market, and if they lose via a split decision, Stake will refund your bet up to $200. This promotion covers all Fight Night and Numbered events, including UFC 324.